This is a good example of why you don’t want to elect a President with Popular votes…..it only takes the large cities to win an election that way. Let’s hope this article is wrong….America can’t stand four more years of this man.
The presidential election battleground has shrunk over the course of the summer as states have begun falling into predictable patterns and campaigns have begun to place their bets for the fall.
The latest updates can be seen in The Times interactive battleground map, which currently shows President Obama ahead in states with 247 electoral votes, while Republican Mitt Romney leads in states with 191. Eight tossup states hold the balance for the 270 electoral votes needed for election. The map allows users to try out different scenarios to predict November’s winner.
Over the last few weeks, despite hopes by Democrats that Arizona might become a swing state, recent polls have shown it clearly leaning toward Romney. Similarly, polls in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which Republicans have expressed hopes for, have shown those states leaning toward Obama. Tellingly, neither campaign is currently advertising in those states, with both campaigns recently pulling out of Pennsylvania’s TV markets.
By contrast, advertising has been near saturation levels in the eight states that appear to be genuine tossups: Nevada and Colorado in the West; Iowa and Ohio in the Midwest and industrial belt; New Hampshire; and Virginia, North Carolina and Florida in the South.
Romney will need to win the lion’s share of those states in order to beat Obama, and Republican strategists believe he will gain ground in them during the fall. So far, however, the only tossup state in which he has led in the average of recent public polls is North Carolina.
By contrast, if Obama holds the states in which he currently appears to lead, he could sew up a victory by carrying Florida alone or by winning Ohio and any one of the other tossups or by any one of several combinations involving Virginia.
Recent polling suggests that Obama’s best shots may be in Ohio, where an intensive advertising barrage appears to have done considerable damage to Romney’s image with voters, and in Nevada, where demographic changes, particularly a steady increase in the ranks of Latino voters, have made the state more hospitable to Democrats.
It’s also possible that all or nearly all the tossup states will fall in the same direction. In the most optimistic scenario for Democrats, Obama could end up with 326 or more electoral votes, not as many as he received in 2008, but still a substantial electoral college victory. Scenarios exist in which Romney, too, could break 300, but that would require a significant shift from the current state of the race.