As you read this be aware that the Household surveys are more like a poll of 60,000 people (been done for years) , but the business survey is more reliable. Also what isn’t being reported is 582,000 of these 873,000 household jobs are part time/temporary jobs. The U6, which is a better indicator of unemployment is still over 14%.
CNBC calls the numbers “tame,” but also notes the “contradictory” numbers.
Something’s odd with this report. Either the household survey (one of the two surveys the BLS uses to compile this report) is way off, or the BLS is underreporting job growth in the overall numbers.
A Christian financial expert is reacting to Friday’s unemployment rate report out of Washington, calling the alleged drop “deceptive” and indicative of why Americans are losing faith in their government.
The federal government says the unemployment rate fell sharply from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent last month — the same unemployment rate as when Barack Obama took office. According to the report, 114,000 jobs were added in September – many of them part-time.
Last month, Dan Celia of Financial Issues Stewardship Ministries predicted the jobless rate would fall to 7.9 percent in the October jobs report — which is due out just days before the November election. But the drop reported today, according to Celia, is not the result of a massive number of jobs being created.
“I said it was a setup. This was more smoke and mirrors and deception,” he said Friday on American Family Radio. “And I also said that I’ve lost all confidence and faith — what little I had, and I didn’t have a lot — in the Department of Labor Statistics.
“Well, this number that we got today, going down below eight percent leading up to the election, is confirmation of everything that I’ve been saying. And I’m sad to say that because this is our government that we’re losing faith in.”
Celia calls it “very interesting” that in this latest report, the labor participation rate did not change. ”[But] what did change dramatically were the household surveys,” he stated. “Now let me tell you a little bit about the household surveys.
“[That's] something that has been going on for many, many years — since the 70s — where the Bureau of Labor Statistics picks up their dial-up phone, which I think they still have, because they don’t do real-time data and they haven’t come in to the technology of the 21st century yet, and they pick up and they make surveys. They call numerous people, people that are on their ‘list,’ and they ask them: Has anybody in your household found a job?“
According to those surveys, 873,000 people reported finding a job — the largest number since 1983.
“Let me just tell you about 1983,” Celia offered. “In 1983, we were creating well over a million private sector jobs on average — a million. We created 114,000 this month, with an average this year of somewhere around 140,000.”
That number – even if it were half-a-million jobs a month – is not enough, says Celia, to maintain what he terms a “stagnant inflation.”
“But somehow, in the midst of creating 114,000 jobs this month, we see an unemployment rate go down because of the households surveys, which is an archaic way of doing anything when we have real-time data available – do you understand that?….”
“… What I’m saying is, you call household surveys and you have more positive household surveys than you have had since 1983 when we were creating over a million jobs per month? You figure it out.”